2011.9.10

 The International Dialogue Conducted by Stanford University Japan Office in KYOTO

Generals: 

when yesterday

where KYOTO CITY INTERNATIONAL FOUNDATION

about what the demographic structure change in east asia and its influence on economy, society, and national security 

who five panelist who have different nationalities; China, the U.S., Viet Nam, Japan, and South Korea.

Aim of the conference:

to suggest and analyse the demographic change in four east asian countries; China, Viet-Nam, Japan, and Korea, and by that to declare relevant aspects in these countries and find out problems caused with the change. 

Summary of representative’s speakings:

Ms. Eggleston (The U.S.)

General idea about the decrease of fertility rate and the rise of average lifespan typical in east asia countries, which is common phenomenon in these nations caused by economic and social structure change after rapid population growth.  

Mr. Cai Fang (China)

Low birth rate and aging population in China are accounted for by two changes. One is ‘the one child program’ by government. Another is economic growth which imposes much more education cost on parents.  But these demographic features have weakened industrial advantageous as world’s factory of Chana which contains many labor-intensive industries. 

Ms. Ninh (Viet Nam)

There are similar demographic changes following China also in Viet Nam. But the extent of the symptom is much lighter. The expected problem is to improve education quality for young generation and make sure what role the nation can play in the globalized world. Look at China as the world’s factory!

Mr. Myung Hwan (Korea)

The demographic change in Korea seams to be in the same stage as that in Japan. The fertility rate has been as low as 1.5 since several decades ago. But the rate slightly rose to over 2.0 by the policy to support the childbirth and child raising for young parents. However, the policy costs too much for its efficiency on the birth rate, so we need different solutions decoupled with the financial compensation. 

Mr. Oizumi (Japan)

The aging in population and declining birth rate is not an unique phenomenon in Japan. The same situation appears in Thailand, Malaysia, and even Indonesia. Even in relatively poorer rural district in Thailand, the village is undergoing the decreasing fertility rate. This is because young parents do not want to give more birth to save money and spend it intensively for fewer children. They know lifetime income gap between engaging in agriculture in their hometown and working in the city, which can varies by as much as 100 times. 

My opinion:

Japan had faced more serious problem caused by demographic changes than any other asian countries, for example, the increasing insurance and pension cost for retired elderly generation supported by relatively smaller number of young generations. When it comes to this problem getting more serious and critical in the near future, the national budget will not be able to cover still growing elderly generation. But in my opinion it is not effective solution to accept more immigrants as labor forces as German government does. This method can cause ethnical conflicts especially in Japan which characteristics are not familiar with ethnically mixed environment. Thus, for some time, it is needed to expand domestic demand to get back economic vitality among young generation, and to provide financial support for them to raise their children. However, these policy will not last for a long time because of decreasing tax income and increasing social security costs. This means Japan has to look at the immigration as inevitable choice in the future. So it is necessary to consider labor exchange with neighborhoods in Asia, and to support their economic growth and the improvement of the labor quality as the crucial components in the future of Japan.