What ‘Big Data’ make difference in political campaigns?

Kiyotaka ISHIKAWA

Tomorrow is the vote day for Japan’s parliamentary election. This is why a couple of advertising vans are coming and going on the every major streets all the time, calling for supports with a speaker loudly. The mass advertisement seems still powerful in political campaigns at least for now that would be the last thing still remaining popularized while most of ads and media has been individualized along a variety of characteristics after an information revolution. However, this might be no longer so.

The information gap in the U.S. presidential election 

It was not only the campaign promise that gave Obama victory in the election, but also the aggressive information strategy which extracted every single tips about voter’s preference from massive personal databases, called ‘Big Data’, and utilized them into persuasive campaigns tailored along each voter’s taste in a various form of appeal. One example goes like this. If George Clooney was statistically proved fascinating amongst West Coast females ages 40 to 49, those women would be the most likely to hand over cash for a chance to have a dinner with Clooney - and Obama. 

The background of the information revolution in the U.S. campaign

A U.S. campaign manager said, ‘Politics was the goal but political instincts might not be the means. (TIME, Issued November 19, 2012).’  It might be surprising for such an exciting presidential election in America, but the poll has been conventionally around 60%, deteriorating over time. A common challenge for American political parties is how to get supports out of populations who shows indifference about politics. The individualized persuasive appeals through Big Data analysis is an efficient way in the country of huge territory and small density of population although it cost much for correcting data and hiring a number of analyzers, but it would be even cheaper than visiting door to door or buying ad for local papers or TVs in every state, not to mention about running advertising cars over the country. 

The common or deferent aspects in Japan’s political campaign

While Japan also suffers from political indifference especially among young-adult generations, approximately 70% on average over whole voters at the last parliamentary election, contrarily Japan still have advantages of mass advertisement due to a high concentration of populations in metropolitan areas and a high market shares of national newspapers and broadcast stations. This is partially why the mass advertising in Japan sounds imprinting rather than persuading, shouting the candidate’s name repeatedly from a mini-van with a large signboard writing its name and picture. 

An expected information revolution in Japan’s political campaign

However, the situation is gradually shifting digital in this country as well as America. This election will be the first one after twitter and other social network services has prevailed over the country, and many candidates have declared their political stances and replied voters for their supports and oppositions. It is said that the Japanese shows less reluctance against anonymous activities on the Internet, so now would be the time for politicians to call for a vote not from windows of a car but from a window of a display.